Formation of seasonal groups and application of seasonal indices
نویسندگان
چکیده
Estimating seasonal variations in demand is a challenging task faced by many organisations. There may be many stock-keeping units (SKUs) to forecast, but often data histories are short, with very few complete seasonal cycles. It has been suggested in the literature that group seasonal indices (GSI) methods should be used to take advantage of information on similar SKUs. This paper addresses two research questions: (1) how should groups be formed in order to use the GSI methods? and (2) when should the GSI methods and the individual seasonal indices (ISI) method be used? Theoretical results are presented, showing that seasonal grouping and forecasting may be unified, based on a Mean Square Error criterion, and K-means clustering. A heuristic K-means method is presented, which is competitive with the Average Linkage method. It offers a viable alternative to a company’s own grouping method or may be used with confidence if a company lacks a grouping method. The paper gives empirical findings that confirm earlier theoretical results that greater accuracy may be obtained by employing a rule that assigns the GSI method to some SKUs and the ISI method to the remainder. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2014) 65, 227–241. doi:10.1057/jors.2012.126 Published online 13 March 2013
منابع مشابه
Seasonal changes in icefish diel feeding patterns in Lake Chaohu, a large shallow eutrophic lake of China
Seasonal changes in the diel feeding patterns of the zooplanktivorous icefish (Neosalanx taihuensis), which is an endemic species of China, were studied in the large, shallow eutrophic Lake Chaohu of China during the autumn of 2002 and summer of 2003. The results of the diel feeding rhythm indicate that icefish is a visual particulate feeder. There were large differences in diet composition and...
متن کاملSeasonal changes in icefish diel feeding patterns in Lake Chaohu, a large shallow eutrophic lake of China
Seasonal changes in the diel feeding patterns of the zooplanktivorous icefish (Neosalanx taihuensis), which is an endemic species of China, were studied in the large, shallow eutrophic Lake Chaohu of China during the autumn of 2002 and summer of 2003. The results of the diel feeding rhythm indicate that icefish is a visual particulate feeder. There were large differences in diet composition and...
متن کاملBenthic invertebrate community in Khur-e-Mussa creeks in northwest of Persian Gulf and the application of the AMBI (AZTI's Marine Biotic Index)
Benthic invertebrates are a well-established target in environmental quality status evaluations. The AMBI (AZTI's Marine Biotic Index) was developed to determine the impacts and the quality status of soft-bottom marine benthic communities. The aim of this study was investigating multivariate pattern of benthic invertebrate community and application of AMBI (AZTI's Marine Biotic Index) for dete...
متن کاملBenthic invertebrate community in Khur-e-Mussa creeks in northwest of Persian Gulf and the application of the AMBI (AZTI\'s Marine Biotic Index)
Benthic invertebrates are a well-established target in environmental quality status evaluations. The AMBI (AZTI's Marine Biotic Index) was developed to determine the impacts and the quality status of soft-bottom marine benthic communities. The aim of this study was investigating multivariate pattern of benthic invertebrate community and application of AMBI (AZTI's Marine Biotic Index) for...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- JORS
دوره 65 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2014